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PRMIA 8010 Exam - Topic 1 Question 90 Discussion

If E denotes the expected value of a loan portfolio at the end on one year and U the value of the portfolio in the worst case scenario at the 99% confidence level, which of the following expressions correctly describes economic capital required in respect of credit risk?
A) E - U
B) U/E
C) U
D) E

PRMIA 8010 Exam - Topic 1 Question 90 Discussion

Actual exam question for PRMIA's 8010 exam
Question #: 90
Topic #: 1
[All 8010 Questions]

If E denotes the expected value of a loan portfolio at the end on one year and U the value of the portfolio in the worst case scenario at the 99% confidence level, which of the following expressions correctly describes economic capital required in respect of credit risk?

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Suggested Answer: A

Economic capital in respect of credit risk is intended to absorb unexpected losses. Unexpected losses are the losses above and beyond expected losses and up to the level of confidence that economic capital is being calculated for. The capital required to cover unexpected losses in this case is E - U, and therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.

This question does raise an important point - are expected losses a part of economic capital, or are they not? Different text books say different things, and sometimes they say both the things. I have tried to take an approach that uses what I read in the PRMIA handbook.

This writeup - http://www.riskprep.com/all-tutorials/37-exam-3/111-credit-var-an-intuitive-understanding - may help clarify things further.


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Freeman
3 days ago
U/E doesn't really fit the context here.
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Bernadine
8 days ago
Wait, are we sure about this? Seems off to me.
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Fatima
14 days ago
Totally agree with France, E - U makes sense.
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Tomoko
19 days ago
I think it's just U, right?
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France
24 days ago
It's definitely U - E that shows the risk!
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Tambra
29 days ago
I thought economic capital was about how much you need to cover unexpected losses, so I lean towards A) E - U, but I'm not 100% confident.
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Deeanna
1 month ago
I'm not entirely sure, but I feel like U represents the worst-case loss, so maybe it stands alone as the capital needed? That would make C) U a possibility.
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Roy
1 month ago
I remember practicing a question where we had to find the difference between expected value and worst-case scenarios. Could it be A) E - U?
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Gabriele
1 month ago
I think the economic capital is related to the potential loss, so maybe it's something like U - E? But none of the options seem to match that.
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