When modeling operational risk using separate distributions for loss frequency and loss severity, which of the following is true?
When modeling operational loss frequency distribution (which, for example, may be based upon a Poisson distribution) and a loss severity distribution (for example, based upon a lognormal distribution), it is assumed that the frequency of losses and the severity of the losses are completely independent and do not impact each other. Therefore Choice 'a' is correct, and the others are not valid assumptions underlying the operational loss modeling.
Once each of these distributions has been built, a random number is drawn from each to determine a loss scenario. The process is repeated many times as part of a Monte Carlo simulation to get a the loss distribution.
If E denotes the expected value of a loan portfolio at the end on one year and U the value of the portfolio in the worst case scenario at the 99% confidence level, which of the following expressions correctly describes economic capital required in respect of credit risk?
Economic capital in respect of credit risk is intended to absorb unexpected losses. Unexpected losses are the losses above and beyond expected losses and up to the level of confidence that economic capital is being calculated for. The capital required to cover unexpected losses in this case is E - U, and therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.
This question does raise an important point - are expected losses a part of economic capital, or are they not? Different text books say different things, and sometimes they say both the things. I have tried to take an approach that uses what I read in the PRMIA handbook.
This writeup - http://www.riskprep.com/all-tutorials/37-exam-3/111-credit-var-an-intuitive-understanding - may help clarify things further.
Which of the following is the most accurate description of EPE (Expected Positive Exposure):
When a derivative transaction is entered into, its value generally is close to zero. Over time, as the value of the underlying changes, the transaction acquires a positive or negative value. It is not possible to predict the future value of the transaction in advance, however distributional assumptions can be made and potential exposure can be measured in multiple ways. Of all the possible future exposures, it is generally positive exposures that are relevant to credit risk because that is the only situation where the bank may lose money from a default of the counterparty.
The maximum (generally a quantile eg, the 97.5th quantile) exposure possible over the time of the transaction is the 'Potential Future Exposure', or PFE.
The average of the distribution of positive exposures at a specified date before the longest trade in the portfolio is called 'Expected Exposure', or EE.
The expected positive exposure calculated as the weighted average of the future positive Expected Exposure across a time horize is called the EPE, or the 'Expected Positive Exposure'.
The price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date - is the 'fair value', as defined under FAS 157.
Therefore the corect answer is that EPE is the weighted average of the future positive expected exposure across a time horizon.
A bank holds a portfolio of corporate bonds. Corporate bond spreads widen, resulting in a loss of value for the portfolio. This loss arises due to:
The difference between the yields on corporate bonds and the risk free rate is called the corporate bond spread. Widening of the spread means that corporate bonds yield more, and their yield curve shifts upwards, driving down bond prices. The increase in the spread is a consequence of the market risk from holding these interest rate instruments, which is a part of market risk. If the reduction in the value of the portfolio were to be caused by a change in the credit rating of the bonds held, it would have been a loss arising due to credit risk. Counterparty risk and liquidity risk are not relevant for this question. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
According to the implied capital model, operational risk capital is estimated as:
Operational risk capital estimated using the implied capital model is merely the capital that is not attributable to market or credit risk. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer. All other responses are incorrect.
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