Which of the following statements is true:
1. Basel II requires banks to conduct stress testing in respect of their credit exposures in addition to stress testing for market risk exposures
2. Basel II requires pooled probabilities of default (and not individual PDs for each exposure) to be used for credit risk capital calculations
The correct answer is choice 'b'
Both statements are accurate. Basel II requires pooled probabilities of default to be applied to risk buckets that contain similar exposures. Also, stress testing is mandatory for both market and credit risk.
A bank prices retail credit loans based on median default rates. Over the long run, it can expect:
The key to pricing loans is to make sure that the prices cover expected losses. The correct measure of expected losses is the mean, and not the median. To the extent the median is different from the mean, the loans would be over or underpriced.
The loss curve for credit defaults is a distribution skewed to the right. Therefore its mode is less than its median which is less than its mean. Since the median is less than the mean, the bank is pricing in fewer losses than the mean, which means over the long run it is underestimating risk and underpricing its loans. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
If on the other hand for some reason the bank were overpricing risk, its loans would be more expensive than its competitors and it would lose market share. In this case however, this does not apply. Loan pricing decisions are driven by the rate of defaults, and not the other way round, therefore any pricing decisions will not reduce the rate of default.
The CDS quote for the bonds of Bank X is 200 bps. Assuming a recovery rate of 40%, calculate the default hazard rate priced in the CDS quote.
Hazard rate x Loss given default = CDS quote. In other words, Hazard rate x (1 - recovery rate) = CDS quote. We can therefore calculate the hazard rate for this problem as 200 bps/(1 - 40%) = 3.33%.
Which of the following statements are true:
1. Credit risk and counterparty risk are synonymous
2. Counterparty risk is the contingent risk from a counterparty's default in derivative transactions
3. Counterparty risk is the risk of a loan default or the risk from moneys lent directly
4. The exposure at default is difficult to estimate for credit risk as it depends upon market movements
Credit risk is the risk from a borrower defaulting on moneys lent. Counterparty risk, on the other hand, is the risk that a counterparty to a derivative transaction will be unable to pay at the time the transaction is in-the-money.
Credit risk therefore relates more to the banking book, counterparty risk relates more to the trading book. Credit risk and counterparty risk differ in that for counterparty risk, the amount at risk fluctuates for counterparty risk depending upon the value of the underlying derivative. Counterparty risk generally starts at zero, for most swaps and other derivatives are near zero value at inception. Over time, as the prices of the underlying instruments move, one party ends up owing money to the other. A deterioration in the financial situation of the party owing moneys may lead to a loss to the other party, resulting in counterparty risk. Counterparty risk can also arise from stock lending operations and repo trades.
Credit risk on the other hand is the traditional risk of default by a borrower, or a bank's customer who has taken a loan or has an overdraft or other credit facility.
Statement I is therefore incorrect as credit risk and counterparty risks are different.
Statement II is correct as counterparty risk is 'contingent' in the sense it arises only if the transaction with the counterparty ends up being in-the-money, and the counterparty defaults.
Statement III is incorrect. The statement describes credit risk.
Statement IV is incorrect, as the exposure is known for moneys lent. Derivative exposures for the future are difficult to estimate, they can even turn from moneys owed to moneys due as the value of the underlying changes.
Under the actuarial (or CreditRisk+) based modeling of defaults, what is the probability of 4 defaults in a retail portfolio where the number of expected defaults is 2?
The actuarial or CreditRisk+ model considers default as an 'end of game' event modeled by a Poisson distribution. The annual number of defaults is a stochastic variable with a mean of and standard deviation equal to .
The probability of n defaults is given by (^n e^-) /n!, and therefore in this case is equal to (=2^4 * exp(-2))/FACT(4)) = 0.0902.
Note that CreditRisk+ is the same methodology as the actuarial approach, and requires using the Poisson distribution.
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