Which of the following best describes economic capital?
Economic capital is often calculated with a view to maintaining the credit ratings for a firm. It is the capital available to absorb unexpected losses, and credit ratings are also based upon a certain probability of default. Economic capital is often calculated at a level equal to the confidence required for the desired credit rating. For example, if the probability of default for a AA rating is 0.02%, and the firm desires to hold an AA rating, then economic capital maintained at a confidence level of 99.98% would allow for such a rating. In this case, economic capital set at a 99.8% level can be thought of as the level of losses that would not be exceeded with a 99.8% probability, and would help get the firm its desired credit rating.
Choice 'c' is the correct answer. Economic capital does not target minimizing the cost of capital, nor is it a provision for losses arising from market risk. The concept of economic capital is unrelated to where an institution or firm is based, therefore Choice 'a' is incorrect as well.
Under the KMV Moody's approach to credit risk measurement, how is the distance to default converted to expected default frequencies?
KMV Moody's uses a proprietary database to convert the distance to default to expected default probabilities.
When modeling operational risk using separate distributions for loss frequency and loss severity, which of the following is true?
When modeling operational loss frequency distribution (which, for example, may be based upon a Poisson distribution) and a loss severity distribution (for example, based upon a lognormal distribution), it is assumed that the frequency of losses and the severity of the losses are completely independent and do not impact each other. Therefore Choice 'a' is correct, and the others are not valid assumptions underlying the operational loss modeling.
Once each of these distributions has been built, a random number is drawn from each to determine a loss scenario. The process is repeated many times as part of a Monte Carlo simulation to get a the loss distribution.
If E denotes the expected value of a loan portfolio at the end on one year and U the value of the portfolio in the worst case scenario at the 99% confidence level, which of the following expressions correctly describes economic capital required in respect of credit risk?
Economic capital in respect of credit risk is intended to absorb unexpected losses. Unexpected losses are the losses above and beyond expected losses and up to the level of confidence that economic capital is being calculated for. The capital required to cover unexpected losses in this case is E - U, and therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.
This question does raise an important point - are expected losses a part of economic capital, or are they not? Different text books say different things, and sometimes they say both the things. I have tried to take an approach that uses what I read in the PRMIA handbook.
This writeup - http://www.riskprep.com/all-tutorials/37-exam-3/111-credit-var-an-intuitive-understanding - may help clarify things further.
Which of the following is the most accurate description of EPE (Expected Positive Exposure):
When a derivative transaction is entered into, its value generally is close to zero. Over time, as the value of the underlying changes, the transaction acquires a positive or negative value. It is not possible to predict the future value of the transaction in advance, however distributional assumptions can be made and potential exposure can be measured in multiple ways. Of all the possible future exposures, it is generally positive exposures that are relevant to credit risk because that is the only situation where the bank may lose money from a default of the counterparty.
The maximum (generally a quantile eg, the 97.5th quantile) exposure possible over the time of the transaction is the 'Potential Future Exposure', or PFE.
The average of the distribution of positive exposures at a specified date before the longest trade in the portfolio is called 'Expected Exposure', or EE.
The expected positive exposure calculated as the weighted average of the future positive Expected Exposure across a time horize is called the EPE, or the 'Expected Positive Exposure'.
The price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date - is the 'fair value', as defined under FAS 157.
Therefore the corect answer is that EPE is the weighted average of the future positive expected exposure across a time horizon.
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