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PRMIA Exam 8010 Topic 1 Question 39 Discussion

Actual exam question for PRMIA's 8010 exam
Question #: 39
Topic #: 1
[All 8010 Questions]

The cumulative probability of default for a security for 4 years is 11.47%. The marginal probability of default for the security for year 5 is 5% during year 5. What is the cumulative probability of default for the security for 5 years?

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Suggested Answer: B

Volatility clustering leads to levels of current volatility that can be significantly different from long run averages. When volatility is running high, institutions need to shed risk, and when it is running low, they can afford to increase returns by taking on more risk for a given amount of capital. An institution's response to changes in volatility can be either to adjust risk, or capital, or both. Accounting for volatility clustering helps institutions manage their risk and capital and therefore statements I and II are correct.

Regulatory requirements do not require volatility clustering to be taken into account (at least not yet). Therefore statement III is not correct, and neither is IV which is completely unrelated to volatility clustering.


Contribute your Thoughts:

Felicitas
8 hours ago
Hmm, this seems straightforward enough. Let me think this through step-by-step. Yep, I'm pretty sure the answer is A) 16.47%.
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Veda
1 days ago
I'm not sure, but I think the answer is C) 15.90% because we need to subtract the marginal probability from the cumulative probability for 4 years.
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Avery
4 days ago
I agree with Sheridan, because we need to add the marginal probability of default for year 5 to the cumulative probability for 4 years.
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Yoko
6 days ago
Wait, the cumulative probability is 11.47% for 4 years, and then the marginal probability for year 5 is 5%? Okay, I think I got this. Time to crunch the numbers!
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Sheridan
8 days ago
I think the answer is A) 16.47%
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Mohammad
10 days ago
I'm not sure, but it makes sense to me. So, I'll go with A) 16.47%
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Lavonne
10 days ago
I agree with Charlette, because we need to add the marginal probability of default for year 5 to the cumulative probability for 4 years.
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Charlette
16 days ago
I think the answer is A) 16.47%
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