CIPS L5M2 Exam - Topic 3 Question 53 Discussion

Actual exam question for CIPS's L5M2 exam

Question #: 53
Topic #: 3

Oliver is a procurement manager and he is trying to work out the likelihood that a supplier fails to deliver to the warehouse two days in a row. Which of the following methodologies should Oliver use?

Avalue at risk

Bnormal distribution

Cbinomial distribution

DPoisson Distribution

Show Suggested Answer

Suggested Answer: A

The correct answer is 1 - the 3rd party can provide broader experience and expertise. They can advise on best practice and will know how to advise Robot Ltd as they will have experience across a wide range of companies. This is explained on p.91 of the study guide

by Deane at Mar 04, 2025, 07:06 PM

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Dustin

7 months ago

Binomial is definitely the best option for two consecutive failures!

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Dannette

8 months ago

Poisson? Really? That doesn't seem right for this situation.

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Marisha

8 months ago

Wait, why not normal distribution? Seems like a solid choice too.

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Helga

8 months ago

Totally agree, it fits the scenario perfectly!

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Marla

8 months ago

I think binomial distribution is the way to go here.

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Buddy

9 months ago

I feel like value at risk is more about financial metrics, so it probably wouldn't apply to this situation with supplier deliveries.

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Lavonna

9 months ago

I practiced a similar question where we had to determine probabilities for discrete events, and I think the Poisson distribution could be relevant too.

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Thurman

9 months ago

I'm not entirely sure, but I remember something about normal distribution being used for continuous data, so that might not fit here.

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Emerson

9 months ago

I think Oliver might want to use the binomial distribution since he's looking at the probability of a specific number of failures over a set period.

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Stevie

9 months ago

Value at risk seems like an odd choice for this problem. That's typically used for financial risk, not supply chain reliability. I'm going to rule that one out and focus on the probability distributions instead.

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Flo

9 months ago

Okay, I think the binomial distribution makes the most sense here. We have a binary outcome (deliver or not deliver) and we're looking at the probability of a specific number of "failures" (two days in a row). I'll work through the binomial formula to calculate the likelihood.

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Claribel

9 months ago

Hmm, I'm a bit unsure about this one. I know normal distribution is commonly used for continuous variables, but I'm not sure if that applies here. Maybe I should review the characteristics of the other distributions to see which one is more appropriate.

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Dominga

9 months ago

This seems like a straightforward probability question. I'd start by thinking through the different distribution options and which one best fits the scenario of a supplier failing to deliver two days in a row.

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Therese

1 year ago

I heard Oliver's supplier is so unreliable, they're sponsored by the Bermuda Triangle.

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Marylin

1 year ago

Poisson Distribution might also work well in this case, considering the supplier's track record.

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Kaitlyn

1 year ago

I agree, binomial distribution is the best choice for this scenario.

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Alishia

1 year ago

Oliver should use binomial distribution to calculate the likelihood.

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Dorsey

1 year ago

Wow, value at risk? That's for stock market analysis, not procurement. I think Oliver needs to stick to the basics here - the binomial distribution is the way to go.

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Izetta

1 year ago

Oh, come on! Normal distribution? That's for, like, bell curves and stuff. This is all about supplier reliability. Clearly, the binomial distribution is the way to go.

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Bettye

1 year ago

User 3: I agree, binomial distribution is the way to go for this scenario.

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Oliva

1 year ago

User 2: User Comment: I agree, binomial distribution seems more appropriate for supplier reliability.

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Wendell

1 year ago

User 1: I think normal distribution is not the right choice here.

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Lemuel

1 year ago

I think Poisson Distribution could also work, as it deals with the number of events happening in a fixed interval of time.

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Nida

1 year ago

I agree with Sharee, binomial distribution is the most appropriate for this scenario.

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Casie

1 year ago

Hmm, I'm not so sure. Binomial distribution seems a bit too simplistic. Maybe the Poisson distribution would be a better fit, since it's often used for rare events like supplier failures.

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Frankie

1 year ago

I think binomial distribution might not capture the variability of supplier failures accurately.

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Vesta

1 year ago

I agree, Poisson distribution would be more appropriate for rare events.

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Sharee

1 year ago

Oliver should use binomial distribution.

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Huey

1 year ago

I think Oliver should use the binomial distribution method. It's perfect for analyzing the probability of a supplier failing to deliver on two consecutive days.

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Vesta

1 year ago

Oliver should definitely avoid using the value at risk methodology for this particular analysis.

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Sarina

1 year ago

I'm not sure, but I think the normal distribution method might also be worth exploring.

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Christene

1 year ago

I think Oliver should also consider the Poisson Distribution method, it could provide valuable insights.

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Jeanice

1 year ago

I agree, the binomial distribution method is the most appropriate for this scenario.

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