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PRMIA Exam 8010 Topic 5 Question 70 Discussion

Actual exam question for PRMIA's 8010 exam
Question #: 70
Topic #: 5
[All 8010 Questions]

The probability of default of a security during the first year after issuance is 3%, that during the second and third years is 4%, and during the fourth year is 5%. What is the probability that it would not have defaulted at the end of four years from now?

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Suggested Answer: D

The probability that the security would not default in the next 4 years is equal to the probability of survival at the end of the four years. In other words, =(1 - 3%)*(1 - 4%)*(1 - 4%)*(1 - 5%) = 84.93%. Choice 'd' is the correct answer.


Contribute your Thoughts:

Julian
3 days ago
Woah, that's a lot of numbers to keep track of! I'm gonna go with C. 88.00%, just to keep things simple.
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Izetta
8 days ago
What do you think the answer is for the probability of default question?
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Leslee
9 days ago
Hmm, I think the answer is B. 88.53% seems like the most accurate probability of not defaulting in 4 years.
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