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PRMIA 8010 Exam - Topic 5 Question 70 Discussion

Actual exam question for PRMIA's 8010 exam
Question #: 70
Topic #: 5
[All 8010 Questions]

The probability of default of a security during the first year after issuance is 3%, that during the second and third years is 4%, and during the fourth year is 5%. What is the probability that it would not have defaulted at the end of four years from now?

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Suggested Answer: D

The probability that the security would not default in the next 4 years is equal to the probability of survival at the end of the four years. In other words, =(1 - 3%)*(1 - 4%)*(1 - 4%)*(1 - 5%) = 84.93%. Choice 'd' is the correct answer.


by Kimbery at Apr 07, 2025, 04:37 PM

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Kris
4 months ago
Not sure, but I feel like 84.93% seems low for four years.
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Elli
4 months ago
I’m leaning towards option B too!
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Lenna
4 months ago
Wait, how does that add up to 88.53%? Sounds off.
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Latrice
4 months ago
I think it’s definitely more than 80%.
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Frankie
5 months ago
The default probabilities are 3%, 4%, 4%, and 5% for each year.
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Queen
5 months ago
I’m uncertain about the exact numbers, but I feel like the answer should be around 88%. I hope I remember the multiplication of the survival probabilities correctly!
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Louvenia
5 months ago
I think the key is to find the complement of the default probabilities. I’m leaning towards option B, but I need to double-check my calculations.
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Muriel
5 months ago
If I recall correctly, we need to multiply the probabilities of not defaulting each year. I think it’s something like 97% for the first year, but I’m a bit confused about the others.
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Novella
5 months ago
I remember we practiced a similar question about default probabilities, but I’m not sure how to calculate the overall probability of not defaulting.
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Markus
6 months ago
I'm a little confused by this question. The probabilities for each year are given, but I'm not sure how to combine them to get the overall probability. I'll need to think this through carefully and maybe ask the professor for some guidance.
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Pok
6 months ago
Okay, I got this. The key is to find the probability of not defaulting in each year and then multiply them together. Let's see, 3% in the first year, 4% in the second and third years, and 5% in the fourth year. I think the answer is B, 88.53%.
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Rachael
6 months ago
Hmm, I'm a bit unsure about how to approach this. I'll need to review my notes on calculating probabilities for multiple events. Maybe I can break it down step-by-step.
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Johnetta
6 months ago
This looks like a straightforward probability calculation. I'll need to think through the probabilities for each year and then combine them to get the overall probability of not defaulting.
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Yoko
11 months ago
You know, I once had a pet security that defaulted on me. Traumatic experience, let me tell you. Anyway, I'm going with B. 88.53% because it sounds the most secure.
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Hubert
10 months ago
Let's go with B) 88.53% then.
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Evette
10 months ago
I agree, it seems like the most secure option.
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Haley
10 months ago
I think B) 88.53% sounds like a safe bet.
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Delbert
11 months ago
This is easy peasy! The probability of not defaulting at the end of four years is clearly D. 84.93%. I'm acing this exam, no doubt about it.
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Marylin
9 months ago
Let's double check the calculations to be sure, but I'm sticking with D.
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Gail
10 months ago
I'm not so sure, I think it could be B) 88.53%.
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Joanne
10 months ago
No way, it's definitely D. 84.93% makes the most sense.
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Dorethea
10 months ago
Are you sure it's D? I think it might be A) 12.00%.
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Junita
11 months ago
I'm feeling lucky today, so I'm gonna go with A. 12.00%. What could go wrong, right?
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Evangelina
10 months ago
User 3: I'm going with D) 84.93%, playing it safe.
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Jacqueline
10 months ago
User 2: I'm feeling lucky too, I'll stick with A) 12.00%.
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Telma
10 months ago
User 1: I think I'll go with B) 88.53%, seems like a safer bet.
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Lindsey
11 months ago
Ooh, this is a tricky one. I'm gonna have to do some calculations to figure this out. Hopefully, I don't default on my exam too!
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Sue
10 months ago
C) 88.00%
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Devon
10 months ago
B) 88.53%
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Naomi
10 months ago
A) 12.00%
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Izetta
12 months ago
That makes sense. I agree with you, I will go with option B as well.
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Tyisha
12 months ago
I think the answer is B) 88.53% because you have to calculate the complement of the probability of default at each year.
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Julian
12 months ago
Woah, that's a lot of numbers to keep track of! I'm gonna go with C. 88.00%, just to keep things simple.
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Rossana
11 months ago
I agree, let's go with C. 88.00%.
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Clarinda
11 months ago
I think C. 88.00% sounds like a good choice.
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Izetta
1 year ago
What do you think the answer is for the probability of default question?
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Leslee
1 year ago
Hmm, I think the answer is B. 88.53% seems like the most accurate probability of not defaulting in 4 years.
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France
10 months ago
Definitely B) 88.53%, that seems to be the consensus here.
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Halina
10 months ago
I'm leaning towards B) 88.53% as well, it seems to make sense.
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Pansy
10 months ago
Yes, I also think B) 88.53% is the most accurate choice.
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Caprice
10 months ago
I agree, option B) 88.53% seems like the correct probability.
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Royal
10 months ago
Definitely B) 88.53%, that seems to be the consensus here.
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Gracia
11 months ago
I'm leaning towards B) 88.53% as well, it seems to make sense.
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Tegan
11 months ago
Yes, I also think B) 88.53% is the most accurate choice.
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Twanna
11 months ago
I agree, option B) 88.53% seems like the correct probability.
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