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Della works as a project manager for BlueWell Inc. She has asked her assistant Beth to provide
activity duration estimate for an activity. Beth provides Della the following estimate chart:
What will be the activity duration according to the PERT three-point analysis?
A three-point estimate records the optimistic, most likely, and the pessimistic duration
and then records an average for the predicted duration.
Three-point estimate is a way to enhance the accuracy of activity duration estimates. This concept is
originated with the Program Evaluation
and Review Technique (PERT). PERT charts the following three estimates:
Most likely (TM): The duration of activity based on realistic factors such as resources assigned,
interruptions, etc.
Optimistic (TO): The activity duration based on the best-case scenario
Pessimistic (TP): The activity duration based on the worst-case scenario
The expected (TE) activity duration is a weighted average of these three estimates:
TE = (TO + 4TM + TP) / 6
Duration estimates based on the above equations (sometimes simple average of the three estimates
is also used) provide more accuracy.
Here it is,
TE = ( 24 + 28*4 + 36) / 6
= 272/6
= 29 (approx)
Answer options B, D, and A are incorrect. These are not the valid answers for this question.