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PMI-SP Exam - Topic 2 Question 13 Discussion
Topic #: 2
What forecasting method would your project use if your project customer requires an autoregressive moving average for performance forecasting?
The autoregressive moving average is an example of a causal/econometric method for
the forecasting project performance.
The casual/econometric forecasting method uses the assumption that it is possible to identify the
underlying factors, which might influence the
variable being forecasted. For example, sales of umbrellas might be associated with weather
conditions. If the causes are understood,
projections of the influencing variables can be made and used in the forecast. Some examples of
casual/econometric forecasting method are
as follows:
Regression analysis using linear regression or non-linear regression
Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
Econometrics
Answer option B is incorrect. The time series method relies on the earned value, moving average,
extrapolation, and growth curve.
Answer option A is incorrect. The judgmental methods use intuition, the Delphi method, and
forecast by analogy.
Answer option C is incorrect. The ensemble forecasting is not part of the causal/econometric
method for forecasting.
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