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PMI-SP Exam - Topic 1 Question 93 Discussion

Posted by Nobuko on Nov 19, 2024 at 03:39 PM

Jenny is the project manager for her organization. Her project is not doing well on project schedule performance, and management wants her to predict how the project schedule and cost will end. Management has asked Jenny to report and forecast her project's performance based on the Judgmental methods. Which of the following judgmental methods will Jenny use to accomplish the task? Each correct answer represents a complete solution. Choose all that apply.

Suggested Answer: B

The law of diminishing returns state that the user cannot exponentially add labor to a

project to reduce the amount of time required to complete the project work. In other words, Harry

cannot keep doubling the workforce on this project to reduce the project duration down to

just a few minutes.

The law of diminishing returns state that 'the user will get less and less output when he add

additional doses of an input while holding other

inputs fixed. In other words, the marginal product of each unit of input will decline as the amount of

that input increases holding all other

inputs constant.' Diminishing returns mean that the extra labor causes output to fall, which means

that the MPL is negative. In other words,

the change in output per unit increase in labor is negative and total output is falling.

Answer option C is incorrect. This is not a valid project management term.

Answer option A is incorrect. Parkinson's Law states that work will expand to the amount of time

allotted to it.

Answer option D is incorrect. Moore's Law is based on Intel's Gordon Moore who stated that

processor speeds generally double in power

every 18 months.


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34 comments · newest first
VI
Vilma 11 months ago
Totally agree with you, Janey! Forecast by analogy is the way to go!
ST
Starr 11 months ago
Autoregressive moving average? Really? That sounds complicated for a project manager.
TA
Tamesha 12 months ago
Not sure about technology forecasting. Seems a bit off for this situation.
LY
Lyda 12 months ago
I think scenario building is also a solid choice for her.
JA
Janey 1 year ago
Jenny should definitely use forecast by analogy. It's a classic!
LA
Lashaun 1 year ago
I think "Autoregressive moving average" is more of a statistical method, not really judgmental. I might be mixing it up with something else we studied.
DE
Desmond 1 year ago
I feel like "Scenario building" could be a good choice here too. It allows for different outcomes based on varying assumptions, right?
FR
Francisca 1 year ago
I'm a bit unsure about "Technology forecasting." It seems more technical than judgmental, but maybe it fits in some way?
DE
Delisa 1 year ago
I remember we discussed forecasting methods in class, and I think "Forecast by analogy" is definitely one of the judgmental methods Jenny could use.
EN
Ena 1 year ago
I feel pretty confident about this one. Forecast by analogy and scenario building are the two judgmental forecasting methods that would be most relevant for predicting a project's schedule and cost performance. I'll select those and move on.
FL
Floyd 1 year ago
I'm a little confused by the options here. Autoregressive moving average sounds more like a statistical forecasting method, not a judgmental one. I'll have to double-check my understanding of these techniques before answering.
EL
Elza 1 year ago
Okay, I've got this. Forecast by analogy and scenario building are definitely judgmental forecasting methods that could be used to predict project performance. I'll make sure to select those.
CR
Cruz 1 year ago
Hmm, I'm a bit unsure about this one. The question is asking about specific forecasting techniques, but I'm not totally familiar with all of them. I'll have to think through the options carefully.
MA
Marshall 1 year ago
This seems like a straightforward question about forecasting methods. I think I'll focus on the key terms like "judgmental methods" and "project performance" to identify the relevant options.
RE
Remona 2 years ago
I'm just glad they didn't include 'consulting the Magic 8-Ball' as an option. That would have been an even bigger giveaway!
JO
Jovita 1 year ago
↳ replying to Remona
D) Scenario building
IL
Ilene 1 year ago
↳ replying to Remona
B) Technology forecasting
DA
Dallas 1 year ago
↳ replying to Remona
A) Forecast by analogy
DE
Desirae 2 years ago
I bet Jenny wishes she could just roll a pair of dice to predict the future. That would be a lot easier than these 'judgmental methods'.
DO
Domingo 1 year ago
↳ replying to Desirae
D) Scenario building
LE
Leatha 1 year ago
↳ replying to Desirae
B) Technology forecasting
LA
Lavera 1 year ago
↳ replying to Desirae
A) Forecast by analogy
CH
Chi 2 years ago
Technology forecasting? Really? Jenny's not trying to predict the next big tech trend, she just needs to get a handle on her project's performance. A and D all the way!
TY
Tyra 2 years ago
Wait, why is Autoregressive Moving Average even an option? That's more for time-series forecasting, not judgmental methods. Clearly, A and D are the correct answers.
PA
Paris 1 year ago
↳ replying to Tyra
Management needs accurate predictions to make informed decisions about the project's schedule and cost.
LE
Letha 1 year ago
↳ replying to Tyra
Jenny should definitely choose Forecast by analogy and Scenario building for predicting project performance.
BE
Berry 1 year ago
↳ replying to Tyra
Yeah, I agree. Forecast by analogy and Scenario building seem more appropriate for judgmental methods.
JU
Junita 1 year ago
↳ replying to Tyra
I think Autoregressive moving average is used for time-series forecasting.
CH
Cherrie 2 years ago
Hmm, I think Forecast by Analogy and Scenario Building are the way to go here. Jenny needs to look at similar projects and build different scenarios to predict the schedule and cost outcome.
CO
Cortney 1 year ago
↳ replying to Cherrie
Yes, those methods will definitely help Jenny predict the project's performance accurately.
ME
Mee 2 years ago
↳ replying to Cherrie
I agree, Forecast by Analogy and Scenario Building are great options for Jenny to use in this situation.
LI
Linwood 2 years ago
I think Autoregressive moving average could also be helpful in forecasting project performance.
LO
Louvenia 2 years ago
I agree with Shala. Forecast by analogy and Scenario building are good judgmental methods for predicting project performance.
SH
Shala 2 years ago
Jenny should use Forecast by analogy and Scenario building.
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