PRMIA Exam 8006 Topic 9 Question 37 Discussion

A residential mortgage carries a prepayment option for the borrower, where in the event of a decrease in interest rates they are likely to repay the mortgage and refinance at the new lower rate. If rates go up, the bank does not have a similar option. If the volatility of the underlying interest rates increases, mortgage holders are more likely to be faced with new rates that are sufficiently lower to persuade them to refinance. This reduces the ability of the bank to continue to earn the higher interest rate it was earning before.

Therefore an increase in volatility of the mortgage interest rates decreases the value of the mortgage portfolio.

The same rationale applies to callable bonds, where the borrower has the option to call the bond.