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How is a risk score calculated?
A risk score is commonly calculated by combining two core factors: how likely a risk scenario is to occur and how severe the consequences would be if it did occur. This is often described in cybersecurity risk documentation as likelihood times impact, or as a structured mapping using a risk matrix. Probability or likelihood reflects the chance that a threat event will exploit a vulnerability under current conditions. It may consider elements such as threat activity, exposure, ease of exploitation, control strength, and historical incident patterns. Impact reflects the magnitude of harm to the organization, usually measured across business disruption, financial loss, legal or regulatory exposure, reputational damage, and harm to confidentiality, integrity, or availability.
While confidentiality, integrity, and availability are essential for understanding what matters and can influence impact ratings, they are typically inputs into impact determination rather than the full scoring method by themselves. Past experience and expert threat assessment can inform likelihood estimates, but they are not the standard calculation model on their own. The key concept is that risk must reflect both chance and consequence; a highly impactful event with very low likelihood may be scored similarly to a moderate impact event with high likelihood depending on the organization's methodology.
Therefore, the most accurate description of how a risk score is calculated is the combination of probability and impact, enabling prioritization and consistent risk treatment decisions.