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CIMAPRA17-BA1-1 Exam - Topic 1 Question 87 Discussion

Based on a trade balance between Country A and Country B over a ten year period, the underlying trend of the trade balance is represent equation-114.027 -1.47xwhere x is the time period expressed in years.Assuming an additive forecasting model, with a seasonal factor of 82 6, then the forecast for year 2016, in whole units is:
A) -113968
B) -113868
C) -113768
D) -113668

CIMAPRA17-BA1-1 Exam - Topic 1 Question 87 Discussion

Actual exam question for CIMA's CIMAPRA17-BA1-1 exam
Question #: 87
Topic #: 1
[All CIMAPRA17-BA1-1 Questions]

Based on a trade balance between Country A and Country B over a ten year period, the underlying trend of the trade balance is represent equation

-114.027 -1.47x

where x is the time period expressed in years.

Assuming an additive forecasting model, with a seasonal factor of 82 6, then the forecast for year 2016, in whole units is:

Show Suggested Answer Hide Answer
Suggested Answer: A

by Reiko at May 13, 2024, 04:14 AM

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Angelyn
8 months ago
Totally agree, -113868 seems right to me!
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Brynn
8 months ago
Wait, how can we trust this model? Seems off.
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Paris
8 months ago
Forecasting for 2016 looks like -113868.
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Adelina
8 months ago
I think the seasonal factor is a bit high.
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Erinn
9 months ago
The equation shows a negative trend in trade balance.
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Wilda
9 months ago
I think the seasonal factor of 82.6 needs to be added to the trend value after calculating it. I just hope I remember the steps correctly!
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Sueann
9 months ago
If I recall correctly, x should be 6 for 2016 since we start counting from 2010. I hope I got that right!
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Reita
9 months ago
The equation looks familiar, but I’m a bit confused about how to calculate the forecast for 2016. I think I need to plug in the right value for x.
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Nada
9 months ago
I remember we practiced a similar question about trade balances, but I’m unsure how to apply the seasonal factor here.
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Kenneth
9 months ago
Alright, I think I've got this. The key is to plug the time period (x = 2016) into the trade balance equation, then add the seasonal factor of 82 6. Let me work through the math and see which answer choice matches my result.
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Joanna
9 months ago
Hmm, the trade balance equation makes sense, but I'm a bit confused about how the seasonal factor of 82 6 comes into play. I'll need to think through the logic of the forecasting model to figure out the right approach.
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Rikki
9 months ago
This looks like a tricky one. I'm not sure I fully understand the additive forecasting model and how to apply the seasonal factor. I'll need to review my notes and try to work through it step-by-step.
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Wilda
9 months ago
Okay, let's see. The question is asking for a forecast for year 2016 based on a trade balance equation and a seasonal factor. I'll need to plug in the values and do the calculation to find the answer.
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Carrol
10 months ago
I'm a bit confused on this one. I don't recall learning about the different probe origins for custom user monitors. Guess I'll have to make an educated guess.
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Ling
10 months ago
I'm a little confused by the wording of this question. Can someone help me understand what the sn_vul.itsm_popup property is and how it relates to the customer's preference for a popup when creating a Problem or Change record?
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